First of all, I hate when outbreaks happen on a major level simply for the reason that I hate it when people lose everything. I am talking about lives as well as property that can not be replaced…. Just look at a few pics from the “Joplin Tornado”, the deadliest tornado since 1953…..
I have not seen that type of damage since the “Moore Tornado” on May 3rd, 1999 where most of Moore, OK was totally wiped off the map. They say it was an EF4, but there is the chance it might get an upgrade…… not an upgrade I would want….
So we shift our thoughts to Oklahoma and Kansas today where the SPC in Norman, OK has placed a High Risk for most of Tornado Alley. In other words Oklahoma and Kansas from I-35 to the Arkansas and Missouri Border.
It looks bad for many reasons this afternoon, here is the low down as to what is going to happen. Lets start with the surface analysis:
We have a deepening area of low pressure out in the panhandle area this morning. With a deepening low, winds will accelerate towards the low. With this SE wind we call this backing. While this is going on, very dry air will be coming off the high plains of NW and TX with pure west winds. This creates the dryline that will be the focus for t-storm development later this afternoon. Now to the water vapor…..
That little “x” is a very strong area of cold air at around 18,000ft. When it kicks out later today it will create a ton of spin in the atmosphere, this will interact with the dryline and create some very big supercells. The atmosphere in that part of the country will be primed for a lot of rotating supercells. Here is the NAM’s (North American Model) output for tonight starting at 7pm, then 10pm, then 1am.
Storms at this point in time will be numerous along the dryline in OK, racing towards KS and MO. Most of them will be rotating. The NAM under does convective activity so there will be more activity than shown here. 10pm:
Storms now in NE OK and SE KS, all rotating supercells with possible tornadoes, movement will be at around 45 degrees, in other words NE. Ono 1am:
The complex now moves into southern MO and a few counties in NW Arkansas….. The cluster to the SW will weaken and die before it makes it into central Arkansas. So the chance for severe weather in our state today is very low…….