Another round of nasty severe weather moved in to the state last night affecting far western Arkansas…… check out this radar image as a debris ball moved into Denning:
Whenever I see things like this it makes my stomach turn on itself…. They are cleaning up big in Denning and Altus from last night’s tornadoes…… We now turn today:
There is a moderate risk across central and eastern Arkansas for this afternoon, the main threat will be wind, but isolated tornadoes will be possible. I am somewhat on the fence on this one, it could either be a total dud, or a very nasty outbreak. As the day progress I should have a better feeling as to what will be happening. My gut says bad, but my gut has been wrong before. Here is the scenario:
Low pressure in southern Kansas will migrate towards the east throughout the day. The dryline has moved into eastern sections Oklahoma and will start to move a bit later today. All the green on the map here is moisture as it streams northward, so moisture is not a problem.. At the upper levels, a potent shortwave is rotating around the main upper low that came out into Kansas and Oklahoma yesterday… The X represents the wave that will move into the NW sections of the state later today and quickly move into the eastern sections of the state. This will provide a lot of lift, and with the instability that will be in place storms will erupt quickly along the merging dryline and race towards the NE. The different issue we could be facing this afternoon is the core of energy at the 18,000 foot level. The air “upstairs” will be tremendously colder than the the air over Oklahoma yesterday. In other words the instability will be off the charts this afternoon along and east of the dryline, and the way the upper low is swing through will also provide the eastern parts of the state with a lot of spin as well…. All of this energy will rotate through between around noon and 9pm so the timeline with these storms will be around 8 hours. As more model runs come in I will post updates.