Rain chances up for the weekend

It looks like there are some small rain chances for the weekend for the north and ne, but I am optimistic that some of the shower activity might move into central. This is the GFS run for Saturday night. Notice the rain starting to push into northern Arkansas, this is being helped by a more westerly jet stream flow and rain cooled air in Kansas and Missouri. As the rain falls and cools the air behind the front, the front pushes farther south. This again is a self feeding process. The next image is from Sunday morning and look at how the front is now well into northern and ne Arkansas by 6am on Sunday…. as this moves in and slowly stalls out, it will re-fire by the late afternoon. Now the GFS is not very good on “convective feedback” so sometimes it can’t take into account storms firing off of previous storm’s outflows. Nevertheless the next image is from Sunday afternoon and the front is clearly into central Arkansas firing off some afternoon t-storms. I am optimistic that by the time the afternoon model runs come in, the rain chances will be up for the weekend!

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