I was pretty excited this morning when I came in and saw the latest Forecast Trac for the next 24 hours.
The model is indicating that IF storms develop in Oklahoma this afternoon (this is not guaranteed) then they may hold together and move into western Arkansas late overnight and early tomorrow morning. These would be severe t-storms with possible straightline winds and hail. Tornadoes are not very likely.
These storms may actually hold together and move through much of the state tomorrow morning bringing with them cooler temperatures and rain into central and southeast Arkansas by 8:15am Tuesday. They will weaken after 6am so I don’t expect much in the way of severe weather in eastern Arkansas with these storms.
Forecast Trac is also indicating that the morning round of storms should move by early enough to allow for sunshine to develop in western Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon. With a cold front around and plenty of moisture, additional afternoon storms are likely out west. These would them move into central and eastern Arkansas late Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Here is what Forecast Trac is predicting for rainfall amounts. I wouldn’t look at this forecast and take it too literally. Just because it say Camden will see 1.15″ doesn’t mean it’ll actually happen exactly that way in that town. These rainfall forecasts should be looked at in a very generally way. I read it as saying 0.5-1.5″ generally tomorrow with some locations seeing over 2″, especially those that get stuck under the storms longer.
-Greg “Weather Dork” Dee