Updated to the Forecast About the Potential for Severe Weather Next Week

As always with these long range models, the EURO and the GFS, there have been some changes in that actual path of this storm coming out next Wednesday. But the thing that concerns me a bit is not the actual upper low, but the way the wedge holds and where the warm sector sets up. Here is the trajectory

Wed AM Vort of the upper low that is forecasted by both the GFS and the EURO to eject across the south next Wednesday. The difference between this run and yesterday’s run on both the EURO and the GFS is that both models have it a bit more sheared out and moving to the north of N Georgia by Wednesday morning. The thing that has remained constant on the last few runs is where the warm sector sets up. 

Just like every event I have seen here in GA everything is dependent on how that wedge gets pushed out and if the warm  air can make it here in time. Typically these wedge fronts as they retreat have a tremendous amount of shear on them. Look at both the GFS and EURO for next Wednesday morning.wed am temps

This is the euro for next Wednesday morning at 7am and you can clearly see the wedge front retreating. Notice the GFS has the same solutionGFS WEd AM

This is the EURO for next Wed morning, notice where the cold front is. It is that area between the cold front and the warm sector that is the area where things in these situations can get severe. Wed AM Rain

I will keep posting to the blog and on my facebook at twitter pages as to the changes that will be happening over the next few days as to the potential for this to happen.

Here is a link to my facebook page http://www.facebook.com/thechiefmikefrancis

and my twitter feed http://www.twitter.com/mikefranciswx

Thanks again for following me and all my weather updates!!

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5 Responses to Updated to the Forecast About the Potential for Severe Weather Next Week

  1. Debra DeBord says:

    Thank you for continuing to blog about the weather. Your blogs are always so informative. I will keep following you and reading your blog. Love the blog website name too!

  2. Mike Herron says:

    Some of the models are showing snow for North Georgia and Alabama next weekend. Any thoughts on those?

  3. Bob says:

    Sorry to see you leave WXIA Mike….damn shame someone couldn’t have made an announcement instead of letting everyone wonder where you have been.

    Best of luck to you in whatever you decide to pursue.

  4. Mike – what are you thinking for Sugar Mountain NC with this storm next week? BTW sent you a friends request 🙂

  5. Pingback: Is the South and NC headed for more Snow? - The Hull Truth - Boating and Fishing Forum

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