Very Active Pattern Setting Up For This Week

It is going to be a very interesting week in the world of weather will several opportunities for storms, and even the potential for a bit of winter on 2 different occasions. The first weather “situation” comes in overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Take a look at the upper disturbance. Wed AM 500Now granted it is not a big bowling ball low like the last few model runs have been showing, but this energy will create some issues to our west in AR, TN and parts of S Kentucky. By the time is makes it here it will be sheared out and stay to the north. Here is the only thing that concerns me about that morning and again it has to deal with the wedge front that will be setting up during the day. Take a look at the surface temps that will be setting up for Wednesday morning as this cold front will be moving through the area:Wed AM Temps

Notice there is an area in front of the cold front where you can see that wedge, it is kinda like this morning where timing on the lifting on the wedge front is critical for whether we have severe weather or not. As of right now I am saying that we see a line of showers Wed AM Rainwith a few embedded storms but the threat for severe weather is very limited!!

Next we switch gears to Thursday evening. Now this one looks interesting in terms of the fact that most are looking at the weekend, but this system coming out Thursday nightThu PM VOrt

Will already have some cold air in place and a lot of upper energy coming in from the SW. You see that large chunk of upper energy in OK? That will be moving right over some Thu Night

I still think Thursday night is purely a rain event for the metro area, but it something that will be watched closely to see if there any changes. The next “Event” is looking for Saturday and Sunday and as of right now I am seeing mainly a rain event, but as we get closer the threat for severe might go up a bit. Take a look at the power of this upper Sun AM VOrt

Energy, I mean that is some serious energy that will be ejecting out into the SE. Again right now it is way to far out to call for severe weather, but it will be something that I will be monitoring very closely to see if there are any changes. Here are the rain maps for Sat NightSaturday night and Sunday during the day. Notice how we are on the northern side of the rain shield on Saturday evening which means Saturday will be a cold and rainy afternoon.Sun Noon

It is after that things with this system get interesting. We could see some strong storms move through that afternoon, but then on the back side of the storm there is the potential for us to see some winter weather!!! Again this is 5-6 days out but there are 4 separate potential weather “situations” that I will be monitoring for all of you!!!!

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