Take a look on the water vapor loop in the Baja of CA and you can see a powerful disturbance starting to come out. At the same time there is plenty of mid level moisture heading in this direction as well. The thing that I think we have going for us to NOT see anything major is the timing on this rain moving through. Look at the latest NAM for tomorrow night at 7pm and 10pm, and notice where the freezing line is.
This is the NAM for 10pm and notice the rain has cleared the state by then. The thing that the NAM is not indicating is the residual moisture behind the rain that will stick around, and that is the part that the NWS and I are all concerned about. I will keep the blog updated with the latest forecast and you can always count on me to be here.
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