Winter Weather Likely Across Parts of the Area Tonight

There is a powerful system coming in from the SW that is currently dumping snow in a majority of East Texas and parts of central LA. Check out the current waver vapor with the radar superimposed on it and you will see that there is a lot of snow falling theresimuawips-36

This is a pretty strong wave that was completely under forecasted by both the NAM and the GFS a few days ago, but now both are showing this wave coming out very strongly later tonight. Before I show you what might be happening, take a look at the NAM and GFS for this area in both Texas and LA. The first is the NAM for the time in the radar abovenam_precip_mslp_east_3

Here is the radar image that was forecasted by the NAM for the same time..nam_ref_east_3

The NAM completely blows most of TX and almost all of LA. Now take a look at the forecasted precip from the GFS for this timeframe as well.gfs_precip_mslp_east_3

The GFS completely blows the northern side of this winter storm! There is no precip in AR, TX, and most of N LA. SO take a look at the GFS for us tonight.gfs_precip_mslp_east_5

and the GFS is showing precip across our area later tonight. This is valid for 7pm tonight. So it under does the SW but gives us precip. That to me means chances are very high, at least in terms of the GFS to see rain in the metro area….. On to the chance for snow.  I will switch to the NAM for this once since it does better for 850 temps. Take a look at the 850 temps forecasted for 7pm tonight as this wave moves through. 7pm 850Parts are above freezing and parts are below, it is “chunky” and spotty if you will. This indicates pockets of rain that are cooling the temps at that level. But notice the uniformity of the 850 temps at 10pm. This is in indication that the spotty showers 10pm 850

have moved out and the atmosphere has cooled to below freezing at that level. This is what I call the snow level and basically if 850 temps are below freezing, snow will fall in that are. The key to this whole thing is the upper energy and if there is any lingering precip behind that initial wave of cold rain. Here is the map for 500mb at 7pm7and again notice the spottiness of all the pieces of energy, these are the showers that will be developing. As we move to 10pm though, notice something interesting happens that totally coincides with what is happening with 850, there is a uniform chunk of energy that comes in after the bulk of the rain is gone that could force some moisture up and start dropping snow across parts of the area. I am thinking that when the initial wave comes in is is all rain, possibly a bit of sleet. As the rain starts to come to an end I think we could see some light snow mainly north of a line from N Polk, to Fanin and Gilmer. Mainly the mountains, but it could flurry in parts of Cherokee and Pickens… This is the radar image from 7pm and 10pm according to the NAMnam_ref_se_5

nam_ref_se_6

 

Yes you can see that we dry out after the initial rain, but I think that upper energy will be enough to create some flurries in the least in those northern counties.

I will have continual updates on the blog as this situation will be changing through the day.

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One Response to Winter Weather Likely Across Parts of the Area Tonight

  1. nivla5 says:

    WOW!,i guess we are lucky that their is not an Arctic Blast coming down from Canada to meet up
    with all this unstable weather coming in from the west this evening.Thank you Mr.Francis for all
    your detailed weather updates.

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