The latest NAM is out and it continues to show a 3 part winter weather event starting overnight tonight lasting through Thursday morning. The good news is that the event for tomorrow may not be as bad as originally thought for the Atlanta area. Granted we are still going to have snow, but it looks more like a snow / rain mix for Atlanta. But all snow in the
counties just north of the metro area. Mainly north of the top of the perimeter by around 20 miles and north of that is where we will see the most snow during the day tomorrow . The line of where the snow will occur will be very dependent on where the warm air at around 5,000 feet decides to set up. Surface temps will be in the mid 30’s according to latest run from the NAM, but if we start getting snow these temps will cool more than the NAM is showing. I think most of the metro area, at least south of the top of the perimeter should be in the “somewhat clear” tomorrow. It’s once you head out of the metro area where things could get a bit slick tomorrow like Northern Pickens, Northern Cherokee, Northern Forsyth. It is Wednesday that really concerns me.
According to every model, we are set for a very nasty ice storm across the entire metro area on Wednesday. What you see above is the NAM and we are wedged and all that pink you see there is freezing rain…. This is a very dangerous situation if it does turn out the way it is looking. This is a strong wave coming in from the SW that will ride over this wedge of cold air coming in at the surface from the NE. The timing on this appears to be early on Wednesday morning and lasting through Wednesday evening. Then after that we will see the freezing rain change to snow…. This is the part of the forecast that is still very iffy.. Below you will see the NAM forecast for snow and as I was talking about earlier, I think
that some of the snow totals might be a bit high, but the track of this low at the surface will determine where the heaviest snow will fall. This is just one of many runs that have painted a very similar scenario and that is a major winter weather event for us here in the N Georgia area. I will have a much better idea where the heaviest snow will fall as more runs from the GFS and EURO come in!
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