In all the years I have been a meteorologist, there have been only a few times where I have seen wording from the National Weather Service that uses “catastrophic” and “historic”… But they are correct. Here is their discussion graphic from this morning…
I agree with the NWS in the thinking that will be a historic storm and the latest NAM is in total support of this thinking. Between now and tomorrow morning the exact location of where the heaviest ice and heaviest snow will change, but this is going to happen and it is going to be a very nasty storm that could “cripple” parts of the metro area… Here is the latest NAM and you can see what I call “the wedge” sliding down the mountains in this direction tomorrow morning, taking our temps from the lower 30’s to the upper 20’s. This is a time series from 1am tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon and as you can see, surface temps cool dramatically as the wedge builds in from the NE.
At the same time that the cold air slides in, rain will be spreading in from the SW that will fall into this sub freezing air and freeze on contact to anything. This will be mainly a freezing rain event and parts of the area could see almost a full inch of solid ice. Below is a 24 hour rain total and granted we saw quite a bit of rain and snow this morning, parts of the area could see around 2″ of rain with a large part of that area seeing it fall as freezing rain.
Then on the backside of the storm we will see it transition to a snow event…. Yeah, a total mess of a storm coming in here tomorrow. This is the latest NAM on snow totals and remember that if this storm takes more of a southerly track, the heaviest snow will jog south. If the track jogs north then the snow will jog north a bit. The track of the surface low will be critical in pinpointing where the heaviest ice and snow will occur, but as for right now just realize that most of us will be dramatically impacted by this storm…
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