The Winter Weather Scenario for Tonight and Tomorrow

In all the years I have been a meteorologist, there have been only a few times where I have seen wording from the National Weather Service that uses “catastrophic” and “historic”… But they are correct. Here is their discussion graphic from this morning…image_full6

I agree with the NWS in the thinking that will be a historic storm and the latest NAM is in total support of this thinking. Between now and tomorrow morning the exact location of where the heaviest ice and heaviest snow will change, but this is going to happen and it is going to be a very nasty storm that could “cripple” parts of the metro area… Here is the latest NAM and you can see what I call “the wedge” sliding down the mountains in this direction tomorrow morning, taking our temps from the lower 30’s to the upper 20’s. This is a time series from 1am tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon and as you can see, surface temps cool dramatically as the wedge builds in from the NE.Wed 1am

Wed 7amWed 10am

At the same time that the cold air slides in, rain will be spreading in from the SW that will fall into this sub freezing air and freeze on contact to anything. This will be mainly a freezing rain event and parts of the area could see almost a full inch of solid ice. Below is a 24 hour rain total and granted we saw quite a bit of rain and snow this morning, parts of the area could see around 2″ of rain with a large part of that area seeing it fall as freezing rain.nam_24hr_precip_se_15

Then on the backside of the storm we will see it transition to a snow event…. Yeah, a total mess of a storm coming in here tomorrow. This is the latest NAM on snow totals and remember that if this storm takes more of a southerly track, the heaviest snow will jog nam_snow_depth_se_17south. If the track jogs north then the snow will jog north a bit. The track of the surface low will be critical in pinpointing where the heaviest ice and snow will occur, but as for right now just realize that most of us will be dramatically impacted by this storm…

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3 Responses to The Winter Weather Scenario for Tonight and Tomorrow

  1. says:

    Thanks Mike you’re the best..

  2. miconis says:

    Wow. Definitely strong words for the NWS. 0.5″ of ice will be more than we got back in 2000 I think. That took out SO many pine trees and power lines. We were stuck in our neighborhood for 5 days without power or access to the outside world. Too maybe trees blocking the streets and we ran out Of chainsaw fuel !

  3. Matthew Beasley says:

    Hey Mike good to see your blogs back up! If you ever need a web developer or hosting services reach out to me or visit would like to help you out!

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