Severe Weather Likely Thursday Night

The threat for severe weather looks to be increasing for Thursday night as I continue to look at the latest model data. The SPC has put us in a slight risk for Thursday night as a powerful upper level system out west comes over the eastern US. Here is the risk area for late Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning from the Storms Prediction Center.day3otlk_0830As you can see, this covers most of N Georgia. This upper energy looks intense from all model angles I have been looking at. Here is the latest NAM for Late Thursday night into nam_z500_uv_vort_east_22early Friday morning. The most intense part of this system will stay to the north in KY and TN, but part of it will move through N Georgia late Thursday night into early Friday morning. There is plenty of warmth, and the dew points will increase over the next nam_dew2m_se_21few days to March type levels. While all of this is going on, we will see a strong February Fri 1amstyle cold front move through late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Above is the latest NAM projection for late Thursday night at 1am and as you can see, we have a line of storms moving in and as of right now it looks to be just strong winds, with the possibility for some hail as well. It does look very likely that we will have some severe weather late Thursday night into early Friday morning. As to the extent and type, that is still up in the air.

I don’t want to scare you, but this is a storm that does definitely warrant some concern for me given the intensity of the upper disturbance and the fact that we will be in the 70’s Thursday afternoon. I will get a much better better feel as we go through the next few days.

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