Climate Prediction Center Admits “Major Bust on their Winter Forecast”

So if you recall when I put out winter forecast back in late November I somewhat questioned the thinking of what the CPC was thinking… Now granted, forecasting out 3 months from the start time is a BIG crap shoot…. I mean a really big one. But they have continually for the last 5 seasons basically forecasted above normal temps with below normal rainfall / snowfall despite it being cold every season… I am not really sure on why they keep up the warm and dry forecasts when things for the last 12-15 months, for at least the eastern 1/3 of the nation, has been cold and wet. As in the case this winter it has basically been BRUTAL for most of the central and eastern United States. For us here in Georgia it has been a gnarly one with a major ice / sleet storm, and 2 major snow events in the span of 2 weeks. And, at least for right now, the 9th coldest February on record….

Here is what the CPC forecasted from the time period of Nov 1 -Jan 31 and as you can see,fcst_Temp.01.201312


As you can see here, the CPC has again for the 5th straight season forecasted above normal temps for the entire eastern and southern US.. I have my theories as to why they are doing this on a continual basis and yes it has a lot to do with politics…. Here is what the actual results of winter look like so far:obs_Temp.01.201312

Clearly a busted forecast and according to the CPC’s director they are completely admitting the mistake and how big of an error it was.. They rate themselves at the end of every month as to how the previous 3 month forecast was from 100 to -50… According to Bloomberg Business’s Peter Coy, the grade from their forecast at the end of October for that time period you are looking at above was a -22!! The previous three months that was forecasted at the end of September that went from Oct 1-Dec 31 was a -23!!! At least they have come up one point.

In my opinion, there were signs that this was going to be a very cold winter with above normal snowfall as had been stuck in a wet and cold pattern since last January and there were no signs that was going to change. A negative NAO, ENSO neutral winter, positive PNA…. There were several signs pointing to a cold winter, plus my gut screamed it!! With that in mind, here is their latest 3 month forecast….off01_temp_smallforecast for Feb 1 – April 31….. So far if you look at just February it is another bust LOL!! I guess we will see as we go through the next few months how this pans out. I will have an analysis for the spring forecast coming out soon!

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2 Responses to Climate Prediction Center Admits “Major Bust on their Winter Forecast”

  1. Henry says:

    Hey, Mike you said it was politics, you think Al Gore might have something to do with the forecast because he is into that Global Warming stuff. I’m not into it,because GOD’S word says there will always be Spring,Summer,Fall & Winter.

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