It looks like the first spring style storm system will move through the center part of the country tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night and could bring some severe weather to parts of N Georgia. These are the latest risk areas for tomorrow night into Friday morning and as you can see, a large part of the N Georgia area is in it.
But when you break this down a bit you will see that most of the “Higher Threat” will be in the mid section of the country, mainly parts of TN and KY tomorrow night. That is the area that could see a few tornadoes, possibly a few strong ones and most likely will be changed to a moderate risk by later tonight.
That hatched area is where the most intense upper energy will travel , what you are looking at below is the 500mb vorticity, basically the deeper colors are where there is more lift and more “spin” in the atmosphere.
As that upper energy kicks out across the mid section of the country it will also push a down front down in this direction. We here in N Georgia won’t have the intense upper energy that other parts of the country will, but we will have very high humidity levels for this time of year which means will also have to pretty good instability in place as well. Those 2 slides shows CAPE, or instability, and as you can see a little nose of it moves up into the area between 10pm tomorrow night and 4am Friday morning. I am thinking that is our time frame for the chances of severe weather in the state mainly from around 10pm tomorrow night through around 6am on Friday morning. The chances of tornadoes is low for right now, but if we do see any in the state they will mainly be in the NW section of the state right around that 10pm – 1am timeframe. For metro Atlanta we are looking at just a line of strong to severe t-storms that will move into metro Atlanta by around 2-4am Friday. It should be a line of storms with the main threat being straight line winds, heavy rain, and the possibility of some small hail. Here are forecast radar images from 10pm, 1am, and 4 and as as you can see, it is totally linear.
This has the potential to be a major weather event for parts of the country, but as for N Georgia I am thinking just a few severe warnings with the chance of seeing some damaging winds across the area.
On a scale of 1-10 I am thinking that this is about a 3 for most of us. Of course though I will keep you updated on this changing weather situation and later tonight I will have a blog on the chances for winter weather next! Welcome to the south in February!!
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