As of 9:45pm tonight there were several watches across the central US. The image below is showing you an area of tornado watches that runs all the way from IL, to the southern LA coastline. So far all the tornado reports, there have been 12, have all come from where the most intense upper support has been and that was in central IL. Here are the watches as of 9:45…
The only one that I am really watching is the one that is in AL and TN. So far this watch has had a few tornado warnings in it up around the Nashville area. Here is that southern watch from the SPC and it is in effect until 4am EST.
The latest HRR (the rapid refresh model) shows this line moving in with some good instability and decent shear starting around 1-2am in the NW section of the state. One of the things that is a bit concerning to me is the few discrete cells that are forming ahead of the line. This is just a model, but if those cells do fire up and are isolated, there could be some rotation in them that area will need to be monitored. The line tightens up as it starts to move into the metro area around 4am, then pushes SE out of the metro area by around 5am. Here are the forecast model runs: It appears still that the main threat for tonight will be straight line winds, but there is that potential for a brief spin up as the line moves into and through the area. As the new data comes in and we start switching from forecasting to now casting I will be posting more radar updates on FB and twitter. Until then I will keep you updated on the progression of this line.
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On a scale of 1-10 I am going with a 4 on this one for the threat for damaging winds and a very slim chance of a brief spinup.
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