Severe Weather Chances For Thursday Night – Friday Morning

The SPC has upped the slight risk area to the west of N Georgia to a “moderate”. But as you can see below from our perspective, they are keeping us in the “slight” risk area. Now I day1otlk_1300not always 100% on board for what the SPC is saying, but in this case I think a moderate is good for what may happen out to the west later today, and a slight is definitely the right call for us here in N Georgia. Here is the breakdown of what is called the categorical outlooks below and all that means is that in certain areas, there is a  percentage chance of seeing that type of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. Below is the tornado outlookday1probotlk_1300_torn

and it has most of the moderate in a 5% categorical outlook category. I do think this is a bit low for out there and there are many reasons why they are going low.  The reasons I will break down in another more detailed blog about categorical outlooks later. But the highest is 60% that they can issue, when you see a 60% categorical that is outbreak levels… 5% means that there might be a tornado or 2 in this area in brown. Look at us here in N Georgia and you will see that we are in the 2% bracket, this is very low. Look at the straight line wind outlook for later tonight.day1probotlk_1300_wind

Yes that is much higher for us and I think as these storms roll in later tonight, the far NW section of the state will see some winds in excess of 70mph. As they roll in closer to the metro area the line of storms will start to weaken and granted we could see some severe t-storms, they will not be as strong as they will be in the NW. Here is the time sequence below from the WRF (just a very high resolution model)hires_ref_atl_19 hires_ref_atl_21 hires_ref_atl_23

This line of strong to severe storms will move into the NW section of the state by around 1am, then move through the metro Atlanta area from around 3-5am. We can expect some of the stronger storms to possibly create some wind damage as the line moves through the area.

As for tornadoes…. Well this is the type of line that could have a very quick spin up of a very weak tornado so it is something that will have to be monitored very closely. I will track the storms on the blog, on my Facebook page, and on twitter. So if you are new to the blog you can click on my social media pages below to make sure you stay informed.

On a scale of 1-10 I am still going with a 3 on this one for the threat for damaging winds.

Thanks again for supporting the blog and my social media presence!!

Here is a link to my facebook page http://www.facebook.com/thechiefmikefrancis

and my twitter feed http://www.twitter.com/mikefranciswx

 

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2 Responses to Severe Weather Chances For Thursday Night – Friday Morning

  1. Dawn says:

    Thank you Mike for keeping us up to date. I depend on you for my weather. You have kept us safe many times during severe weather events here in Cave Spring and i will be following you closely tonight as I did when you were on the news. We miss having you on the news.

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