SPC Puts Out a Mesoscale Convective Discussion for N Georgia

This is basically a pre-watch and means that the SPC is talking about issuing a watch for this area soon. They are saying there is an 80% chance that they will issue a tornado watch for the area shaded in red.mcd0132

Here is the official statement from the SPC:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...ERN TN...PARTS OF NRN GA...FAR SWRN VA/NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 210329Z - 210430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED WFO/S FROM ERN
   KY...ERN TN INTO PARTS OF NRN GA...AND FAR SWRN VA/NC.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 0315Z SHOWED A
   WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING /ENE AT 50 KT/ QLCS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL KY THROUGH MIDDLE TN /E OF BNA/ TO NWRN AL AND INTO ERN MS. 
   DESPITE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ERN EXTENT...THE
   STRENGTH OF THE PARENT MS VALLEY MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
   FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BASE OF
   THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   INTO ERN KY...ERN TN...NRN GA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NC/VA.  THE
   STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE RISES EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO E
   TX...ENHANCING THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE QLCS. 
   IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LOW LEVEL AND
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FURTHER SUPPORT EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES IN THE
   QLCS FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST.  AREA VADS SHOW LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 35+ KT SUPPORTIVE OF THE
   TORNADO THREAT.

Again this means that the line of storms out west will be getting close enough for a watch pretty soon. We can expect a watch most likely to be issued by around 11:30 or Midnight and last through most likely around 7am.

Share this to your friends on Facebook so they know about it and I can’t tell you how much I appreciate all of you reading the blog!

On a scale of 1-10 I am going with a 4 on this one for the threat for damaging winds and a very slim chance of a brief spinup.

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One Response to SPC Puts Out a Mesoscale Convective Discussion for N Georgia

  1. Dawn says:

    Thank you Mike severe storms really scare me so thanks for the update.

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