Winter Weather Potential for Wednesday – Monday Afternoon Update

As we get closer to Wednesday it is still looking like at least parts of the N Georgia area will be seeing a bit of snow, and again I still think accumulations look very meager. The setup is that there will be a disturbance coming in from the SW that will provide the lift in the atmosphere. At the same time there will be a colder disturbance in the upper levels that will provide the cold lift. Here is the upper level map from the GFS for 7am on Wednesday 7am 500 GFS

So as you can see it is going to be a serious timing issue with both disturbances. The 850 temps are very similar on both the GFS and the EURO. The first is the GFS, the second is the EURO:7am 850 gfs 7am 850 Euro

As you can see for 7am on Wednesday morning both the GFS and the EURO are very similar. When you have temps below 0 degrees C you typically will get snow falling, most of the time it reaches the surface as a mix of rain and snow when the temps at the surface are above freezing. That is the case with both models, but the EURO paints a better picture of what will be happening at 7am.euro temps

Temps across the entire region, with the exceptions of the mountains, are above freezing. So where the surface low tracks will be very important in this scenario. Right now both models have it staying to the SE off the coast of the GA / SC coastline, here are the GFS and the EURO. 7am GFS Type

7am Euro typeThe GFS is starting to be a bit more aggressive with the mix and the EURO is backing off just a bit. It will really be dependent on where the surface low tracks in the gulf and the timing in the upper disturbance from the north. I will have a more in depth webcast later tonight.

In a nutshell I think parts of the area see a mix of rain and snow Wednesday morning north of the north metro counties. In Atlanta we will see just rain, but there might be a flake or two of snow mixed into the rain in the northern sections of Fulton and N Gwinnett. I am NOT anticipating any travel problems whatsoever.

More Updates later!

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