The chances of us seeing winter weather tomorrow morning continues to look very promising across most of the northern counties for tomorrow morning. It looks like mainly a snow event across the the area from around Carroll to N Cherokee to Dawson and northward. Not expecting much in terms of accumulations until you get into N Pickens as you head up into the mountains. Blue Ridge (I love that town), Ellijay, and other mountain towns could see an inch. Here is a quick model comparison for 7am Wednesday morning and the surprising thing is that the long range models have been surprisingly consistent. Here is the GFS
Again it is showing a mix across the area. The thing about most of these models is that it underestimates the strength of the upper energy. Like this morning’s rain, the models totally underestimated the strength of the upper forcing. I think that there will be a bit more of a mix across the area that I talked about above. The next model is the NAM and this is a bit more aggressive in terms of amounts, I am leaning more towards the NAM in this one.
Even though the NAM is showing green above the 32 degree line, that will be all mix and snow. I do think the NAM depicts almost exactly my thoughts on where the mix line will be and I do think that it will be just a mix until you get into the mountains. 1″ could be possible sup there and yes, there could be some travel problems up there especially on 5/515. The outlier in the mix is now the EURO who takes this system to the south and gives us NADA!! I usually side with the EURO but this time I say NYET!! The EURO totally blew the rain for this morning, I mean completely dried it out before it made it here. So on this forecast I am throwing the EURO in the trash. Here it is for tomorrow morning at 7am.
For metro Atlanta we will see all rain, for north metro we could see rain with a few snow flakes mixed in. I am not expecting ANY travel problems in the metro area tomorrow morning at all.
As for timing, this will start as all rain tomorrow morning around 2am for most of the area, then we will see it start to change to the mix around 5-6am. This will last through 8-9am for the areas that will see snow and a mix, for Atlanta we will see the rain taper off around 10am. More updates to come later and make sure you share this on your Facebook page to spread the work 🙂
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