The next 7-10 days across the SE United States looks very active with several shots of rain coming our direction, and there is a slim chance of seeing some storms on Monday.
For the time being, with a combination of crystal clear skies and light winds, we are looking for another very cold start to the day tomorrow morning. Not as cold across the area as what we saw this morning, but still heading down to 28 balmy degrees in the metro area. In the burbs and in the northern counties we will again dip down to the lower 20’s and there could be a few teens out there.
Tomorrow during the day we are somewhat wedged with NE winds and cloudy conditions across pretty much the entire area. Tomorrow will just be kind of a gross, gray, and chilly day… Completely different than the sunshine we saw today. But it might feel a bit cooler due to the lack of sunshine.. Tomorrow during the day a disturbance from out west that is
right over New Mexico will head in this direction and give us a small shot of rain late tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Here is the 500mb map and you can see that this disturbance will be caught up in the jet and will be moving very quickly.
This will be nothing but rain as it moves through. It is a very fast moving system that will be bringing us rain from around 12am tomorrow night through around 5-6am Saturday morning. The image from below is from the NAM at 1am Saturday morning We can expect around 1/4 inch MAX out of this system.Now the models are trying to clear us out Saturday afternoon and warm us into the lower 60’s, but I think we stay sami wedged until around 2-3pm and we only see mid 50’s for afternoon highs. Here is the NAM for 1pm on Saturday afternoon and you can clearly see a mini wedge trying to hold tight. Models always underestimate the strength of these things so I will have a better handle on it tomorrow.
For Monday, I am still thinking that we are going to see another shot of rain with the potential for a few t-storms mixed into the equation. As for severe weather, it doesn’t look likely at this point in time, but this is early spring and things change very quickly around here this time of year. The latest EURO shows a potent system moving through mid morning on Monday that will definitely drench us with around .5-1″ of rain with the potential for a few rumbles of thunder. Here is the latest rain totals map from the EURO for 1pm on Monday and the system, according to the EURO, weakens as it moves over the state. Temps on Monday will start out in the 50’s and will go into the 60’s by the mid afternoon.
The title of the blog was “active pattern”, well there is another system in the waves for next Friday that will bring us another dousing of rain. This is the EURO that has been showing the same thing for next Friday for 2 days in a row, not gospel by any means, but 3 runs in a row and it shows another system coming in from the west and bringing up plenty of moisture from the Gulf. I will keep my eye on this one as well!
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