It is definitely going to be an interesting week to be a meteorologist in this part of the country, mainly for the potential winter scenario coming through at the end of the week… yes again….
Lets start with the cold air to the north and how it will indirectly affect us this week with a front kicking up some rain and a possible t-storm Monday morning. The latest NAM has the timing on this one to come through tomorrow between around 7-10am and give us about .25″ of rain with it. There is a little bit of energy with this system so there is a chance we could see a t-storm in the mix, but I am not expecting anything to be severe or even close to it. Below is the forecasted radar from 7 and 10 am according to the NAM, again this will be mainly rain.
The BIG story out of this system with be the crippling ice storm that will affect the Ohio Valley area, followed instantly by a massive snow storm.. It is really going to be a mass from parts of NE Arkansas through NE Kentucky….
The bigger story for us lies in what might happen this coming up Thursday with a system coming in from out west. It is still 4-5 days away, but the EURO has been sticking to its guns on this one with almost every run coming out showing a potential winter weather scenario for parts of the area. Here is the upper system as it approaches the region early on Thursday.
Both the EURO and the GFS are now showing the evolution of this system in the beginning stages as very similar. The big difference is what happens when this upper low develops and translates down to the surface.. The EURO turns the sfc low north and cuts across S Georgia, then through the Carolinas putting N Georgia in a prime area for snow. The GFS takes this thing over S Georgia, S South Carolina, and out into the Atlantic putting South Carolina in the prime spot for snow or ice….. Here is the EURO for 1am and 7am for Friday Morning, and the end result across the state being snow….. Again, this is just a model run and things will change:
If this is the solution then that low is in the perfect location for something like this to happen. So far this winter the EURO has been the model that has accurately predicted a few storms coming out of the Gulf to make that northerly jog, this could be the case again on this storm.
The GFS is MUCH different with a much faster moving system coming in from the west and not digging in as much. Here is the GFS for Thursday morning through Thursday night and as you can see the system is much further to the south and east, plus it is moving much faster. This would actually put ice across parts of S Carolina for Thursday and we would barely see anything. Here is Thursday at 7am and 1pm and you can see this is a much faster solution. The GFS has had a hard time with this one as it has been going back and forth on what will be happening end of week.
As for this system that is coming Thu – Fri, I am leaning with the EURO for a solution for the timing and power of this system. We will definitely see rain and the potential for a winter mix in parts of the state starting late Thursday night going into the early part of the day on Friday.
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