Ok folks I have been going over all the latest model runs and here is what I am thinking for later today. Down below is the latest surface map showing the front to the just off to the north with clearing skies to the south of metro Atlanta where I am still thinking will remain mainly clear for a majority of the day. That front will continue to push to the SE and get close to metro Atlanta by later in the day. There is a weak disturbance at the upper levels that will move through at the same and there is a reasonable amount of instability in place to indicate to me that my initial thoughts were correct. Later this afternoon and evening more storms will fire up along this boundary. The SPC has taken us out of the risk area, but I think that I-20 southward later tonight could get a few storms that are on the low side of severe. Here is what the WRF is showing for instability for 7 pm and 9pm below. You can see that the right where the drop off for the instability is located is where the cold front is. That thing marches through the metro Atlanta area by around 9pm and with it could be some strong to severe t-storms. Here is the latest WRF for tonight at 7pm. With this image it is showing the storms developing along the cold front and moving towards the metro area. At this point in time they are just gaining strength as they move SE. Once they hit that richer air they really pop, here is the WRF at 9pm and you can see that most of Fulton, Gwinnett, DeKalb, and most of Cobb are in this cluster. It is right around this time frame that I think we could see a few of these storms get a bit windy, some could even at this point in time be on the severe side. Here is the cluster from the WRF at 11pm tonight and these are all very mature t-storms with the capability of strong winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some areas with hail. I am not expecting tornadoes at this point in time, but that could change as we go throughout the day. I will have more updates throughout the day.
On a scale from 1-10 I am still looking at an area mainly south of I-20 to be right at a 3 with winds the primary threat. Atlanta is right on the cusp of that area on the north side.
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