So there has been lots of chatter on my FB page over the last few days about the chances for severe weather Tuesday, so here are my thoughts on that topic. First lets talk about tomorrow night into Friday morning when we will see a little wave move through that will bring some showers to the area mainly Friday morning. Here is 5am and 8am from the high res NAM (the WRF) for Friday morning.
The good news is that this will be a morning “Event” with only rain and by the time mid day rolls around the weather will be nice and sunny with highs in the 70’s!! Saturday and Sunday look gorgeous as well with temps in the morning in the mid to upper 50’s for lows. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70’s for Saturday and lower 80’s for Sunday, so make some plans for outside time (I will work on my tan as well).
So as for next Tuesday, while the threat is possible, and we could see some storms, I am not anywhere near sold for a “severe weather event”. There are a number of reasons for this but the main thing that it all boils down to is timing… Once again this appears to be a system that will be moving through in the morning. Not only that but all the upper energy hangs back into the midwest… Take a look at 7pm Tuesday night for both the EURO and the GFS.
This time of the year it is difficult to get a system to come down this far, but this isn’t like other years, we are actually around 2-3 weeks behind “normal” schedule. For this reason even though the models are suggesting that the main upper support will hang out west, it has been a wild year and crazy things are possible.
So as far as the timing goes both the EURO and the GFS bring the initial wave of t-storms activity through in the morning on Tuesday then push it east through the day. The first 2 images are from the EURO at 7am and 7pm, the second 2 images are from the GFS at the same times.
Notice on both the models we have “blobs” of rain in the morning at 7am, but when the storms get east of us they pulse up towards the NC / SC border and put down some heavy rain.
As we all know when we get storms in the morning they have the tendency to be weaker since we don’t have any daytime heating they will come through early in the morning and move east through the day. NOW, the only fly in the ointment that the EURO and the GFS do not pick up on is what can happen after the initial wave of rain moves through.
See both the EURO and the GFS hold the front back and don’t move it through into the night time hours of Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. It is with this frontal passage where if there is any severe weather it will be in this timeframe.
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