Severe weather chances are shaping up over the next few days for most of N Georgia, especially for Tuesday. In the meantime we are going to see multiple rounds of rain and storms starting with some later tonight. Here is the SPC setup for the area over the next few days starting with tomorrow.
Storms are expected to fire big time out to the west on a very slow moving cold front. These storms could make it to here late tomorrow night and some could be on the strong to severe side. Here is the outlook for us for Tuesday:
This covers all of N Georgia and it appears to be for 2 potential rounds of storms to move through depending on the timing of the first round that comes in.
Here is my thinking on the whole scenario over the next few days. There are storms ongoing in MS and AL as we speak, here is a look at the radar as of 10:15am. This cluster of storms will continue to move in this direction and will come in here later this evening. Some could be on the strong side with some gusty winds possible in the western sections of the state, not expecting anything severe. The WRF (high res NAM) shows this cluster coming in here later this evening and affecting the metro area around 6pm.
I don’t think it will be as strong as what the WRF is showing since the upper winds are very weak over us today, but that will change as we head towards Monday and especially Tuesday.
For tomorrow and Tuesday, the system tomorrow in AL will be the main factor for us. Ahead of the big system coming in from AL we will see a weak wave move through tomorrow morning that will bring us a few showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder, nothing severe is expected. Here is the WRF for tomorrow mid day:
Once this wave clears we will see some sunshine tomorrow during the day and we will see highs in the mid 70’s. Late in the day tomorrow the storms will pop in AL and start to head in this direction. There will be a high likelihood of tornadoes in Alabama tomorrow during the day, but as the storms approach us the storms should start to line up late tomorrow night into more of a line of storms which for N Georgia is good. Here is the WRF for Tuesday morning as the storms head in:
The main threat for Tuesday morning will be strong winds and heavy rain. A quick spin up tornado is also possible, but not likely. This cluster will weaken through the day on Tuesday as it heads SE, but the actually cold front won’t pus in until later that night. This is when I think (provided the skies clear out) we could see the main round of t-storms fire up out west and move in later that night. Here is the NAM for Tuesday night:
As of right now the NAM is EURO is showing continual rain throughout the day for Tuesday which would mean the instability would remain low. That is good for us since it means a very slim chance of storms for us Tuesday night. But if the skies begin to clear and it really warms up, that’s when we could see severe weather. I will keep you updated.
On a scale of 1-10 I am thinking a 2-3 for Tuesday morning and a 2-3 for Tuesday afternoon.
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