Severe Weather Update, Tornadoes Very Possible

 

I don’t hype up storms often, I save that for potentially big days….. Tomorrow has the potential to be one of those big days for all of us here in N Georgia so make sure you do the following:

  1. Have a designated place to go in case there is a tornado warning and remember the phrase I have taught for years… DUCK…. Downstairs, Under something, Center part of the house, and Keep away from windows…
  2. Have an emergency kit ready in case you lose power… Water, flashlight, batteries, medical stuff (band aids) , the red cross has a great kit.
  3. If you have a NOAA weather radio make sure the battery is fresh and it is programmed.
  4. Bookmark this page and subscribe to the blog by looking on the right hand side under my social media feeds.
  5. Make sure you follow me on facebook and twitter, I will be in overdrive tonight and tomorrow.

I don’t want to scare the holy bejeezers out of you, but I want you to know that this could be a very serious situation tomorrow evening and I want all of you to be completely ready for whatever happens….

There is the potential for severe weather overnight tonight through tomorrow morning, the main threat overnight will be damaging winds, but there is the potential for an isolated tornado in the early morning hours NW of the city… Here is the risk area for tonight according to the SPC.day1otlk_2000

It is not so much tonight that I am concerned about…. It is tomorrow evening that I am a bit concerned about…. Here is the SPC outlook for tomorrow, that moderate will be pushed into N Georgia by tomorrow morning….day2otlk_1730

For tonight, we have good instability in place but the upper winds still have not made it here. We will see this line of storms out west in AL continue to build and get stronger, then move into  NW GA around midnight to 2am. These storms tonight have the potential to have damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes… Here is the WRF for 2am, 4am, and 6am.2am

4am6amSo this is round one, round 2 comes tomorrow in the afternoon and the parameters for this look pretty much like a nasty severe weather outbreak….

The front that is firing off the storms this evening out west will push into the state tomorrow night, ahead of it there will be high levels of instability and very high shear levels. Look below at the CAPE (instability) levels and Helicity (shear) levels.

cape 7pmhires_helicity0_atl_30Anytime you get CAPE above 1000 and Helicity above 200 you are looking at a serious situation. This is the case for tomorrow evening into the late night hours. The latest models shows this front out west in E AL firing up and individual discrete supercells moving through the N Georgia area. Here is the WRF for 7pm, 9pm, and 11pm.

7pm9pm11pmAll those storms that will move into the metro area tomorrow evening after 5-7pm will have the potential to rotate and produce tornadoes….. The “prime time” for tornadoes will be between 6-9pm as the storms move from Alabama into N Georgia. Once they get into the Atlanta area and move east of town the main threat will change to mainly damaging winds.

This is potentially a very serious situation, there have been multiple tornadoes to our west the last 2 days and it is this very same system that will be affecting us late tonight and tomorrow evening. I will keep you updated when new data comes around and I will also be live streaming on my youtube channel when storms start affecting parts of the area.

On a scale of 1 – 10 I give tonight a 4 for NW Georgia and a 2 for metro Atlanta. For tomorrow evening I am giving this situation a 6 on a scale of 1 – 10, it could be a very busy night…..

Please keep up with the blog and my Facebook page for continuous updates on this severe weather potential.

On the right hand side under the facebook and twitter feeds you can subscribe to the blog and you will get an email every time I update it.

Thanks again for supporting the blog and my social media presence!!

Here is a link to my facebook page http://www.facebook.com/thechiefmikefrancis

and my twitter feed http://www.twitter.com/mikefranciswx

Here is my : youtube channel

You can follow me on Google+ Mike’s Google Plus account

 

 

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