Tonight is going to be a busy night, that is for sure. Here is the current situation: We are under a slight risk for tonight for severe weather with the main threat being damaging winds, there is a good chance that we will see isolated tornadoes in the region tonight. For that reason I am thinking that we might see the moderate risk area pushed into the western sections of the region by the next update that comes out.
The hatched area in AL could be pushed into the western sections of the area as well for the next update. What the red area means is that there is a 15% chance within a 20 mile grid that there could be a tornado…. 15% is somewhat high, that might go up later this afternoon as well.
The current setup has a stalled out area of low pressure in the center of the US with a very slow moving cold front just now pushing through northern MS right now. As that front pushes into AL later this afternoon that is when we will see storms pop and begin to move towards N Georgia. Here is the radar progression for the WRF from 7pm through 4am tomorrow.
The storms will move into the western sections of the area later around 5-7pm and they will be severe. We will have plenty of instability in place, here is the WRF for the instability right at the same time that the storms are moving into the area.
The biggest difference in today’s run is that the spin in the atmosphere is forecasted to be a bit lower than the run did yesterday which means more of a wind threat. Don’t let this get your guard down, tornadoes are still very possible this evening, but winds are the main threat. Here is the helicity forecast for tonight in the same time frame.
I don’t hype up storms often, I save that for potentially big days….. Tonight has the potential to be one of those big days for all of us here in N Georgia so make sure you do the following:
- Have a designated place to go in case there is a tornado warning and remember the phrase I have taught for years… DUCK…. Downstairs, Under something, Center part of the house, and Keep away from windows…
- Have an emergency kit ready in case you lose power… Water, flashlight, batteries, medical stuff (band aids) , the red cross has a great kit.
- If you have a NOAA weather radio make sure the battery is fresh and it is programmed.
- Bookmark this page and subscribe to the blog by looking on the right hand side under my social media feeds.
- Make sure you follow me on facebook and twitter, I will be in overdrive tonight.
On a scale of 1 – 10 I give tonight a 5 for the threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.. it could be a very busy night…..
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