Wow, time sure does fly when you are starting a business. In terms of severe weather chances tomorrow I don’t believe the hype that I have been hearing around for the last few days. Plain and simple, we will not have enough warm air in place thanks to the wedge which has been a major factor in the weather this last 18 months. On the latest sea level pressure map here you can see that wedge strongly in place across the area starting from the Piedmont and working its way down into all of N Georgia. Now this is current mind you, but as we get into tonight and the wind at around 5000ft responds to this big old low that is developing to the west, we will see the easterly winds strengthen and consequently the wedge will get even stronger. I have seen it time and time again happen when there are chances for severe weather, N Georgia has to have perfect conditions for severe weather (at least tornadic type of severe weather) to be a player. So lets go over the timeline according to the way the NAM has it laid out. At 500mb we will see this bowling ball low wobble across the mid section of the country and slowly move out across the SE United States, here is the nam for 4am and 7am as you can see above. That is another major factor in tomorrow’s chances of severe weather is the direction that the upper low is coming in from. These disturbances that move in directly from the west rarely create tornado chances, they usually create a big line of garbage style ordinary t-storms. This is of course different when a system like this comes in during the heat of the day, but this will be coming in early Tuesday morning when temps are forecasted to be in the 50’s and lower 60’s according to the NAM below.
The instability as this upper low comes in will be very low as well, even though the mid and upper level winds will be strong and there will be some shear involved, the instability will only support straight-line winds.
This does not mean that there won’t be some brief localized straight line winds, but overall a non event. Even the STP (significant tornado parameter) is very low for tomorrow. I will have another blog out later today but I really do think that tomorrow is minimal. On a scale of 1-10 I give this one a 1 with a borderline 2. I think this line of weak t-storms moves in tomorrow morning out west around 3am and moves through the metro area by around 7am with little or any severe weather reports!
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