A lot of people have been asking me about the chances of severe weather for this coming Sunday….. I have seen this trend in the models, both the GFS and the EURO have been hinting at severe weather for Sunday for the last few days and if this trend continues we could see storms move through here early Sunday… If I were to base the forecast for Sunday on the latest run of the EURO I would say yes, severe weather is likely….. But a lot can and will change over the next few days as the models get a bit better grasp on the complexities of this crazy fall we have had so far.
Here is what concerns me about this system as we look at the EURO for Sunday morning at 1am then at 7am. According to the EURO a potent shortwave (big word for disturbance) comes out of the SW and ejects across the SE US late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, you can see it in the 2 panels below. The first is 1am, the second is 7am…
Notice how the wave moves rapidly across the SE, it is not where the wave is but where it is going that creates the lift in the atmosphere. Not only is it strong, but more importantly is the amount of energy behind the initial wave that is moving across the southern US. This energy behind the wave will push this wave out quickly and with tremendous force in the early hours of Sunday morning. While this is happening, the cold air that we have entrenched in the SE will be pushed northward in the form of a strong warm front, the series below is from around 5,000 feet above the ground and it is the tight edge between the warm air and the cold air that is the boundary where if storms fire we will see storms with rotation. The panels below go from 7pm Saturday night, then 1am Sunday morning, then 7am Sunday morning.
We got from 2c air Saturday night to 18c air early Sunday morning which is again a sign of a very strong warm front. While this is happening the EURO again is showing storms moving across the area, here is the surface map from the 7am and then again 1pm Sunday afternoon.
So, again this is one model from 6 days out…. The GFS is similar as well but a lot will change between now and then. As for right now I will continue to monitor the situation and keep you updated over the next week as to any changes… Stay in touch.
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