Winter Weather Potential Monday

Winter weather is looking very likely for the entire Atlanta metro area during the day on Monday, mainly late in the afternoon into the early evening hours. The coldest air of the year is already plunging into the northern plains this morning with parts of the northern states falling into the -20–30 territory, take a look at some of these crazy temps!!2015021413_metars_dlh

So as that air comes down and arrives tomorrow morning we will be setting the stage for a cold day tomorrow with highs only in the lower 40s! While this cold air settles in we will see a series of weak disturbances come in from the west, the strongest of which will  move through the area Monday night. Here is the Monday night EURO at 7pm, the strongest part of this disturbance will still be out west at this time.. Remember that it is not where the upper wave it, but the area ahead of it that will see the strongest lift in the atmosphere.mon pm 500

 

So, some type of cold precip will be falling at this time through the time that the upper wave moves through the area which according to the EURO will be Tuesday afternoon. Here is the 7pm Tuesday afternoon EURO that still has the area under plenty of lift which means that the precip might linger longer than the models are indicating. ecmwf_z500_vort_se_17

The EURO is showing quite a bit of liquid equivalent precip for the area by Tuesday morning, the question of what kind of precip. Here is the 7pm Monday and 7am EURO for Tuesday morning.pcp mon pmecmwf_slp_precip_se_15

So this blast of cold air coming down tonight is going to be the main factor for what type of precip we get, for that we step up to the 5,000ft level. See that with the power of this upper wave heading in our direction a layer of warm air will “advect” (move into) the 5000ft levelmon 850 am

mon 850 pm

Notice that the temps at this level warm over the 7am-7pm monday time frame. This will melt any potential snow that is going to fall. Yeah….. This means that given the fact that we will have very cold temps at the surface Tuesday morning when this is all falling, below is the map for temps on Tuesday morning….. we could see ice…. Again, it is very far out, 3 days in winter is a lifetime for exact timing and location…. but we could see parts of the area deal with sleet and ice… Here is the EURO for “winter precip”, notice it is showing snow…. I think sleet is much more likely than snow.ecmwf_tsnow_atl_15

I will keep the updates coming 2-3 times per day over the next few days.

Stay tuned and you can always get on the e-mailing list that I talk about down below.

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

Thanks as always for your continued support!! You guys are the best!!!

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One Response to Winter Weather Potential Monday

  1. clara sharp says:

    Thanks, Mike. Always good to see your predictions, and to hear from you.
    Be safe, and warm.
    Clara

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