Winter Weather Potential for Friday Night Into Saturday

Ok, so let me rant for a second….. I think that it is so funny when the National Weather Service (love them, I know some of them read the blog so smooches to ya :-)) and some tv stations under do a forecast as in the case of Tuesday morning. So then the next “event” gets a big push for awareness and turns out to be a total dud. In all transparency, however, I have blown many a forecast while I was a wee laddie on the boob tube and then over forecasted the next one. This one I think it just about as big of a dud as I can imagine given the warnings and advisories that are posted… PlotterI think the area east of the city, mainly 85 and southward are not warranted. Other than that as we stand right now that is my only disagreement with the placement of the watches. As for the northern portions of the state the models continue to trend drier and drier with each and every run across the metro area and that makes total sense given the fact that the air is so dry and it was 20 freakin degrees at noon today!! What in the heck is that all about??  So, here is the situation…. The coldest air of the year is deeply in place right now across the eastern US and let me tell you, its cold! Take a look at the map

simuawips-2 Yeah, thats cold! So this airmass is entrenched and won’t be budging any time soon. Remember that cold dense air is impossible to move and as warm moist air tries to move it out we get the clouds that  spread over as the warmer air lifts and condenses. The problem with this situation is that the air returning isn’t all that moist. Look at the humidity levels by looking at dew points at the surface for tomorrow night at 7pm, then again at 7am Saturday as the system gets rolling. Those dew points are very low so when we do see rain we will see evaporative cooling cool the air near the surface more, but a lot of the initial precip will evaporate before it hits the ground.

ecmwf_dew2m_se_7ecmwf_dew2m_se_9Now look at a different map for you total dorks out there (I say that very affectionately). This is 700mb (13000 ft) vertical velocity and humidity. Where there is a lot of white there is a lot of humidity and the contours show the area where the vertical velocity is highest. That is the area you will have the greatest lift and subsequent precip. This is for Saturday morning at 7am.nam_w700_rh_se_13
Notice that all the tight contours are in the northern sections of the state? That is where I believe we will have the best chance to see mainly ice tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Here is the radar image for nam_ref_se_9Friday night and Saturday morning.sat am

The main bulk of the freezing rain will all fall in the counties of Fulton and northward… Yes, I do think this will be almost all freezing rain, possibly some sleet, but mainly freezing rain because of the 5,000ft temps. While all this rain and grossness is going on the temps at 850 will be warming into the 5-8 degrees C category!! nam_z850_uv_t_se_14Bottom line is that whatever falls will fall as some form of ice. The main bulk of this storm will occur early Saturday morning and yes I do expect travel problems across most areas north of 20 into Atlanta, then N of 85 heading NE of the city…. I will have a better idea and more blogs to come tomorrow.

That is all, you may carry on 🙂

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

 

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