It’s the tale of 3 models and their differences. Right now it is obvious that we are going to have a pretty big snow event across the N Georgia area tomorrow night into Thursday morning but the location of the heaviest snow is still very much up in the air. For now I just want to show you the three models and their solutions, then I will sum it up with what all three mean independently, then what the three mean as a whole. Here is the latest high resolution NAM called the WRF:
The WRF is showing 2 distinct areas of snow in the region, one in the SW near Carrollton into Dallas, the other is in the N Georgia mountains. The one in the SW side is caused by the intense convection that will be just to the north of the surface low that will travel in the central portions of the state, this will happen as the low is moving through and will be mainly snow mixed with some rain. The area in the north is pure snow on the back side of the system in what is known as the deformation zone, the area between a southern jet and a northern jet that on a relative reference frame has 2 distinct wind fields that are moving opposite of each other. This is the zone we see on the water vapor loop where you can see this kind of wrap around….. I will point it out to you tomorrow. Here are the EURO and the GFS: Notice the similarities?
What this means is the following: We are going to have a big winter weather event across parts of the area tomorrow night into Thursday morning. As we get closer to the event we will continue to see a clearer picture of where the heaviest snow will fall. My initial thought calls for 1-2″ of snow from around I-20 into N Fulton, Cobb, and Gwinnett. North of that into the mountains could see 3-6″ easily. Parts of the western sections on the I-20 corridor towards Carrolton will see 3-6″ as well. Again, these are preliminary numbers and as the system comes a bit closer and we here (my 11 year old daughter and I) at the Francis Weather Service get a better handle on things we will know better.
Temps are supposed to warm into the lower 40’s by Thursday afternoon and 50’s by Friday so I don’t think we will see the city shut down for a long period of time like we did during Snow Jam last year so there is no need to go into full blown panic mode 🙂
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