Severe Weather Threat 12/23/15

Ho ho ho ughhhhhh… It seems every year around this time we get the threat for severe weather in the N Georgia area, this year is no different…. Especially since it is an El Nino year…. Here is the threat area for tonight and tomorrow morning, we are in a slight risk area:day1otlk_1300and this is through tomorrow morning.. Don’t let the exact times dictate your thinking, it only means that through tomorrow morning (around 11am) we will be under the risk for some storms that could produce some severe weather. I remember back when I was on the boob tube my management (that’s another story lol…….) would always try to pin me down to predict if there was going to be tornadoes and from what I have learned about this area is that there is ALWAYS a risk for tornadoes when we have a set up like this… I don’t think big monster wedge style grinders are in the future, but I think quick spin ups are possible tomorrow in the morning mainly north of the City….

Here is the latest surface pressure map, this is a big surface low in the ruc00hr_sfc_windmid section of the country that is racing off to the NE fueled but a pretty strong jet stream…. Notice to the north of the low the complete lack of cold air… There is just none to be found here in the US…ruc00hr_sfc_temp.gifAll that means is that this system will be very slow to move through and that will allow the instability (there is not a lot as of right now) to build in over the next 12-24 hours, watch how the CAPE (instability) comes in from the south and peaks tomorrow morning between 4-11amrap_cape_ecentus_13.pngrap_cape_ecentus_19.pngFrom my experience forecasting severe weather here with these types of systems (it’s in my DNA), as long as there is enough jet energy and some shear at the low levels we can get small tornadoes…. Here is the helicity forecast for tonight and tomorrow. Tonight it is strongest as this first batch of storms goes through, then tomorrow as the main line that is in TN moves through the area… rap_helicity_ecentus_6.pngrap_helicity_ecentus_17

So here is the forecasted radar imagery for the same times. There are 2 distinct threats. this evening as the first batch moves through, then tomorrow between around 4 and 11am…..rap_ref_ecentus_6.pngrap_ref_ecentus_13.png

So in a nutshell… Not the biggest threat for a big outbreak, but the threat is there for some storms that could produce some small spin ups with the biggest threat for that tomorrow between 4 and 11 am. I’ll monitor and again thanks for still reading the blog and keeping up with the weather when it gets dicey through me.

Have a very Merry Christmas!!

Mike

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