Yeah, this could be a bit interesting overnight in the western parts of the state… Possibly into the central portions of the metro area in the morning. The latest surface update has the center of the surface low well to the west, but more importantly the warm front is just to the SW of the metro area…. Look down at Lagrange and you can see temps in the 60’s and dew points in the 60’s as well. That warm front will slowly migrate into the area overnight and bring with it some pretty deep instability.. At the upper levels, the water vapor shows a very intense upper low moving through LA and MS with some energy coming around the southern side…. That’s the area that is under the gun with severe weather right now, and that area is the area that will be moving into the western sections of the state by the early morning hours by around 4am. This is the NAM from 7am and you an see that southern side of the storm and the upper energy moving through the metro area..Remember, it isn’t where the upper energy is but where it is going. That “piece of energy”, as the weather dudes on TV call it, will be moving through the western sections of the state by the early morning hours.. Here is the surface instability and helicity (shear) This is for 4am and you can see that the highest instability is in the western sections whereas the highest shear is in the northern sections… Not totally lined up, but the section of the state with good instability and very good shear is the area I am talking about in the early morning hours…. From around 4-7 am I am thinking there is a chance of severe weather for most of the metro area west of 400…. Here is the NAM’s version of the radar from 4-7amSo this line will move through the border area and quickly move through the Atlanta metro area by 7am… Some could have the chance of a quick spin up small tornado…. I am thinking on a scale of 1-10 the threat for tornadoes is around a 3-4 out west around 4am to a 2-3 for the metro area from around 5-7am. Some strong winds are also possible.
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Thanks again for reading my blogs when the weather decides to get crazy!!