February has been a pain in the rear-end this year for sure…. Just as soon as I was seeing some cherry blossoms on the trees next door, we get hit with the coldest weather of the year and a freezing rain even in parts of the area. Well, old man winter is going to throw another curve ball at us this weekend with the potential for some more freezing rain and sleet in the same area, maybe a bit further south this time…..
The scenario is on the tail end of a massive “POLAR VORTEX !!!!! RUN!!!!!!!!!” lol, the way the media goes bonkers over a totally normal winter type scenario is hilarious, but I digress…. Remind me to tell you a story about seeing people inside in the business in newsrooms going nuts over cold air, rather funny!! Anywhoo, take a look at this massive blast of polar air that is going to be in place tomorrow, this will keep highs in the lower 30’s! This is a snapshot of tomorrow morning at 7am, that is polar freakin air!! The kind that makes even Santa shiver!!
So, as you know when we get that knee deep in cold air like that and we have a system coming in from the west, we always get wedged… This will again be the case for us as we go through the next few days. By Friday night the next system coming in from the west will affect us by spreading clouds back in late in the day, but the wedge doesn’t really form yet because the cold polar air will still be in place! Just a little energy comes in from the SW, her is the 1am Saturday NAM, here comes just enough energy to bring in the mid (5000ft level) level winds come back from the south and start running over the cold shallow air we will have in place. Here is the 500 upper level energy map
And here is the 5000 ft level temps. Notice we have upper energy coming in from the SW, we have warm air (well above freezing) coming in from the SW as well….
So we have the very cold dry air in place, the winds at mid and upper levels coming in from the SW brings in some good moisture…. guess what happens…. Yup, we get over running moisture (Dr. Chuck Doswell my mentor in college would shoot me dead if he heard me use that phrase) which will bring rain… Yup, ZERO chance of snow on this one. Rain falls into this air here….. ugh
What does that spell ladies and gentlemen??? Freezing rain….. as long as these models hold tight on this solution we will see another freezing rain event, this cold be a bit further south. Here is the NAM for Saturday morning…
Now you can see the wedge forming up. The wedge in these scenarios has a life and mind of its own and self perpetuates. In other words it is like the chicken and the egg, which came first?? The cold air damming creates the scenario for freezing rain, which deepens the wedge, which creates more freezing rain, which deepens the wedge, which creates more freezing rain, which creates a messed up chicken! Oh wait…. So, if this scenario does happen the way the NAM is stating it should (the euro is a bit further north by the way) then Saturday will be icy with highs in the 30’s, not the 40’s like some area advertising…. But it is still Wednesday night and Saturday is along way out…. AS you know, I will keep you in da loop!
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