Wednesday Winter Weather Update… Milk Sandwich Edition

GFS

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

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Winter Storm Warning For Wednesday and Thursday

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

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Winter Weather Potential For Wednesday – Thursday

It’s the tale of 3 models and their differences. Right now it is obvious that we are going to have a pretty big snow event across the N Georgia area tomorrow night into Thursday morning but the location of the heaviest snow is still very much up in the air. For now I just want to show you the three models and their solutions, then I will sum it up with what all three mean independently, then what the three mean as a whole. Here is the latest high resolution NAM called the WRF:

The WRF is showing 2 distinct areas of snow in the region, one in the SW near Carrollton into Dallas, the other is in the N Georgia mountains. NAMThe one in the SW side is caused by the intense convection that will be just to the north of the surface low that will travel in the central portions of the state, this will happen as the low is moving through and will be mainly snow mixed with some rain. The area in the north is pure snow on the back side of the system in what is known as the deformation zone, the area between a southern jet and a northern jet that on a relative reference frame has 2 distinct wind fields that are moving opposite of each other. deformationzone_1This is the zone we see on the water vapor loop where you can see this kind of wrap around….. I will point it out to you tomorrow. Here are the EURO and the GFS:euro Notice the  GFSsimilarities?

What this means is the following: We are going to have a big winter weather event across parts of the area tomorrow night into Thursday morning. As we get closer to the event we will continue to see a clearer picture of where the heaviest snow will fall. My initial thought calls for 1-2″ of snow from around I-20 into N Fulton, Cobb, and Gwinnett. North of that into the mountains could see 3-6″ easily. Parts of the western sections on the I-20 corridor towards Carrolton will see 3-6″ as well. Again, these are preliminary numbers and as the system comes a bit closer and we here (my 11 year old daughter and I) at the Francis Weather Service get a better handle on things we will know better.

Temps are supposed to warm into the lower 40’s by Thursday afternoon and 50’s by Friday so I don’t think we will see the city shut down for a long period of time like we did during Snow Jam last year so there is no need to go into full blown panic mode 🙂

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

 

 

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Winter Weather Potential For Tuesday-Thursday

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

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Winter Weather Potential For Friday and Saturday Update

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

 

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Winter Weather Potential for Friday Night Into Saturday

Ok, so let me rant for a second….. I think that it is so funny when the National Weather Service (love them, I know some of them read the blog so smooches to ya :-)) and some tv stations under do a forecast as in the case of Tuesday morning. So then the next “event” gets a big push for awareness and turns out to be a total dud. In all transparency, however, I have blown many a forecast while I was a wee laddie on the boob tube and then over forecasted the next one. This one I think it just about as big of a dud as I can imagine given the warnings and advisories that are posted… PlotterI think the area east of the city, mainly 85 and southward are not warranted. Other than that as we stand right now that is my only disagreement with the placement of the watches. As for the northern portions of the state the models continue to trend drier and drier with each and every run across the metro area and that makes total sense given the fact that the air is so dry and it was 20 freakin degrees at noon today!! What in the heck is that all about??  So, here is the situation…. The coldest air of the year is deeply in place right now across the eastern US and let me tell you, its cold! Take a look at the map

simuawips-2 Yeah, thats cold! So this airmass is entrenched and won’t be budging any time soon. Remember that cold dense air is impossible to move and as warm moist air tries to move it out we get the clouds that  spread over as the warmer air lifts and condenses. The problem with this situation is that the air returning isn’t all that moist. Look at the humidity levels by looking at dew points at the surface for tomorrow night at 7pm, then again at 7am Saturday as the system gets rolling. Those dew points are very low so when we do see rain we will see evaporative cooling cool the air near the surface more, but a lot of the initial precip will evaporate before it hits the ground.

ecmwf_dew2m_se_7ecmwf_dew2m_se_9Now look at a different map for you total dorks out there (I say that very affectionately). This is 700mb (13000 ft) vertical velocity and humidity. Where there is a lot of white there is a lot of humidity and the contours show the area where the vertical velocity is highest. That is the area you will have the greatest lift and subsequent precip. This is for Saturday morning at 7am.nam_w700_rh_se_13
Notice that all the tight contours are in the northern sections of the state? That is where I believe we will have the best chance to see mainly ice tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Here is the radar image for nam_ref_se_9Friday night and Saturday morning.sat am

The main bulk of the freezing rain will all fall in the counties of Fulton and northward… Yes, I do think this will be almost all freezing rain, possibly some sleet, but mainly freezing rain because of the 5,000ft temps. While all this rain and grossness is going on the temps at 850 will be warming into the 5-8 degrees C category!! nam_z850_uv_t_se_14Bottom line is that whatever falls will fall as some form of ice. The main bulk of this storm will occur early Saturday morning and yes I do expect travel problems across most areas north of 20 into Atlanta, then N of 85 heading NE of the city…. I will have a better idea and more blogs to come tomorrow.

That is all, you may carry on 🙂

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

 

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More Freezing Rain For N Georgia?

February has been a pain in the rear-end this year for sure…. Just as soon as I was seeing some cherry blossoms on the trees next door, we get hit with the coldest weather of the year and a freezing rain even in parts of the area. Well, old man winter is going to throw another curve ball at us this weekend with the potential for some more freezing rain and sleet in the same area, maybe a bit further south this time…..

The scenario is on the tail end of a massive “POLAR VORTEX !!!!! RUN!!!!!!!!!” lol, the way the media goes bonkers over a totally normal winter type scenario is hilarious, but I digress…. Remind me to tell you a story about seeing people inside in the business in newsrooms going nuts over cold air, rather funny!! Anywhoo, take a look at this massive blast of polar air that is going to be in place tomorrow, this will keep highs in the lower 30’s! This is a snapshot of tomorrow morning at 7am, that is polar freakin air!! The kind that makes even Santa shiver!!ecmwf_t2m_se_5

So, as you know when we get that knee deep in cold air like that and we have a system coming in from the west, we always get wedged… This will again be the case for us as we go through the next few days. By Friday night the next system coming in from the west will affect us by spreading clouds back in late in the day, but the wedge doesn’t really form yet because the cold polar air will still be in place! Just a little energy comes in from the SW, her is the 1am Saturday NAM, here comes just enough energy to bring in the mid (5000ft level) level winds come back from the south and start running over the cold shallow air we will have in place. Here is the 500 upper level energy mapsast am 500

 

 

And here is the 5000 ft level temps. Notice we have upper energy coming in from the SW, we have warm air (well above freezing) coming in from the SW as well….sat am 850

So we have the very cold dry air in place, the winds at mid and upper levels coming in from the SW brings in some good moisture…. guess what happens…. Yup, we get over running moisture (Dr. Chuck Doswell my mentor in college would shoot me dead if he heard me use that phrase) which will bring rain… Yup, ZERO chance of snow on this one. Rain falls into this air here….. ughsat am temps

 

What does that spell ladies and gentlemen??? Freezing rain….. as long as these models hold tight on this solution we will see another freezing rain event, this cold be a bit further south. Here is the NAM for Saturday morning…nam_ptype_slp_se_24

Now you can see the wedge forming up. The wedge in these scenarios has a life and mind of its own and self perpetuates. In other words it is like the chicken and the egg, which came first?? The cold air damming creates the scenario for freezing rain, which deepens the wedge, which creates more freezing rain, which deepens the wedge, which creates more freezing rain, which creates a messed up chicken! Oh wait…. So, if this scenario does happen the way the NAM is stating it should (the euro is a bit further north by the way) then Saturday will be icy with highs in the 30’s, not the 40’s like some area advertising…. But it is still Wednesday night and Saturday is along way out…. AS you know, I will keep you in da loop!

Stay tuned and you can always get on the e-mailing list that I talk about down below.

As most of you know, my days on the tube are a thing of the past, but I will keep my extreme love for the weather alive through my blog and social media presence. I am now in the business of real estate so if you would like to support this blog and my “hobby” of weather. I am going to start a daily forecast for everyone who would like one delivered to their inbox every morning. Go to my website by clicking here and register. Yes it is my real estate site, but I won’t put you into the real estate part of it, I will put you in as “weather geek” and you will just get my weather stuff with an occasional non weather email, don’t be scared I won’t spam you with marketing stuff. Thanks again for all of your support!!

Thanks as always for your continued support!! You guys are the best!!!

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