Severe Weather 4/5

Has it really been a year since I posted on the blog? I need to get my 12 year old writing blogs since he is even a bigger dork than I am.

Today there are 2 distinct waves coming through, the first this morning and the second is later tonight. This morning’s round is in AL / W GA now and will move through around Screen Shot 2017-04-05 at 7.15.01 AM10 am. All of the storms are “elevated” which in “I am a scientist so I use big words” talk. All this means is that these storms are not tapped into the lower level warmth. These will be loud and nasty and might even spin, but I don’t think they will be tornado..

I am definitely a bit “concerned” about the one this evening since some of the storms this

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Late evening Storms

morning have rotation. The upper level jet is still well to the west so when that movesScreen Shot 2017-04-05 at 7.15.37 AM overhead this evening after a full day of heating we will have some powerful storms that will move through around 8-10pm, some of these could produce tornadoes. I give this a 6 on a scale of 1-10.

More updates through the day and remember I am a realtor now so I don’t get to post much. You can help me by signing up on my website www.topnorthatlantahomes.com if you need some help.

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Severe Weather Update 3/31 Style

April is arriving right on schedule tomorrow morning with a chance of some severe weather. I don’t think it will be a massive outbreak, but as we all know it only takes one tornado to screw up someone’s day…. There is a chance that some of these storms in the early morning hours, mainly from 5-8am in the metro area, could rotate and if there is enough instability we could see the chance of a few storms that could produce a small tornado or 2….

First of all, here is the watch that is in effect until 5am for all of the N Georgia area… ww0073_radar_bigIt is early to call this, but we will most likely see this pushed east and extended till around 10am basically having all the metro area under a tornado watch through the mid-late morning hours…

The main thing that concerns me can be seen in this water vapor image right here… the bright white represent the very tall cloud tops, notice the SE and the area of tall clouds ECWVmoving towards the NE and the area just to the south moving towards the East….. That is a very strong area of divergence that is forecasted to move over us at 5am…. you can see it here in the NAM version of the jet stream… nam_jet_300_east_7So as this area moves over us it will help to enhance the line of storms that is moving through Alabama, here it is at 10pm…Image 3-31-16 at 10.12 PMAccording to the high res nam this will move though the metro area tomorrow morning between 5 and 8am and when it does there will be some pretty high instability and some shear down at the surface… This is the sequence or 5 and 7 am instability and shear images… Notice the bullseye of shear right across the metro area at the same time the instability is high…

5am5aqm capehel 5am

7am7am capehires_helicity0_atl_12

Here is the radar sequence…… 5am and 7amhires_ref_atl_10hires_ref_atl_12

So the line of storms moves through the metro area around 7am and with that line we will see severe weather I am certain. As for tornadoes, I am giving it as 3-4 on a scale of 1-10. If we do they will be brief and small. The main threat will be wind and hail as always, but in the morning I am a bit concerned since the instability and shear will be a bit higher than normal when storms roll through.

I’ll post an update in the morning around 5am if you are up.

By the way, if you are in need of a damn good real estate agent in the Atlanta area I’d love to help my fellow weather geeks. Send me an email to Mike@topnorthatlantahomes.com and I can help you out!

 

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Severe Weather Chances for 3/1/16

Ok weather geeks, here is a real quick blog. My apologies for not being as active as I once was but my business has taken off, that and raising three kids occupies a majority of my time… None the less, there is a chance for some storms tonight but the threat looks pretty marginal.. I don’t see a tornado threat, but there will be some loud ones come through. Here is the risk area from the SPCday1otlk_2000Yes, North Georgia is smack dab in the middle of this, but we just don’t have a tremendous amount of instability right now and the storms that have developed to the north are pretty weak, here is the current radar as of 5:15.Screen Shot 2016-03-01 at 5.14.44 PMThe cold front that will come through after the storms will knock our temps back down into the 30’s tomorrow morning and 50’s tomorrow afternoon for highs… As for the storms, take a look at 500mb (18k ft) and notice the upper energy… It is what we weather dudes call positively tilted, in other words the energy is way into the back of the upper trough and won’t actually “kick out” until tomorrow… Typically these are non severe weather producing chunks of energy in this part of the country this time of year. This is for 10pm tonight.500 1amSo the energy at the upper levels is well behind the line that is going to move through the N Georgia area from around 9-11 tonight, here is the NAM radar forecast for tonight and you can see that big red blob moving through….. That is the cluster of storms that will create some thunder, a little wind, but I am not expecting tornadoes…hires_ref_atl_10

Tomorrow it is back to long sleeves and jackets! I’ll keep you updated and thanks again for still reading my stuff!

By the way, if you are looking for a great real estate agent, send me a Facebook message and lets chat… I’d love to help. I have helped several weather geeks move into a new home.

Mike

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Severe Weather Update 2/23

Yeah, this could be a bit interesting overnight in the western parts of the state… Possibly into the central portions of the metro area in the morning. The latest surface update has the center of the surface low well to the west, but more importantly the warm front is just to the SW of the metro area…. Look down at Lagrange and you can see temps in the front60’s and dew points in the 60’s as well. That warm front will slowly migrate into the area overnight and bring with it some pretty deep instability.. At the upper levels, the water vapor shows a very intense upper low moving through LA and MS with some energy coming around the southern side….ECWV That’s the area that is under the gun with severe weather right now, and that area is the area that will be moving into the western sections of the state by the early morning hours by around 4am. This is the NAM from 7am and you an see that southern side of the storm and the upper energy moving through the metro area..500 7amRemember, it isn’t where the upper energy is but where it is going. That “piece of energy”, as the weather dudes on TV call it, will be moving through the western sections of the state by the early morning hours.. Here is the surface instability and helicity (shear) hires_cape_atl_10hires_helicity0_atl_10This is for 4am and you can see that the highest instability is in the western sections whereas the highest shear is in the northern sections… Not totally lined up, but the section of the state with good instability and very good shear is the area I am talking about in the early morning hours…. From around 4-7 am I am thinking there is a chance of severe weather for most of the metro area west of 400…. Here is the NAM’s version of the radar from 4-7amhires_ref_atl_10hires_ref_atl_11.pnghires_ref_atl_13So this line will move through the border area and quickly move through the Atlanta metro area by 7am… Some could have the chance of a quick spin up small tornado…. I am thinking on a scale of 1-10 the threat for tornadoes is around a 3-4 out west around 4am to a 2-3 for the metro area from around 5-7am. Some strong winds are also possible.

As for most of you you know I now have a real estate business so if you know anyone buying or selling a home and need a damn good realtor, send me a PM on Facebook and I will take care of you.

Thanks again for reading my blogs when the weather decides to get crazy!!

Mike

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Winter Weather Threat

Yeah…. So I’m in Dallas and I hear the chatter and all the people running for the hills… Even my daughter texts me about the impending snomageddon…. That is simply not going to be the case with this…. This system is so strong that ahead of it at around 5k ft there is a jet of intense warm air that is going to melt any snow that tries to come down, you can see it here in the temps at 3 this afternoon, they are in celsius and they are all 10-14F above the freezing mark.850

So for this first wave it will be all rain…. Now, as you head up 985 and get to around Gainesville you could run into a little sleet with this round this afternoon, but it will mainly be rain. Temps really need to be colder and air needs to be drier in the mid levels for massive sleet…Even at 6pm tonight temps will be in the mid 30’s so this will all be rain……sfc temps

It won’t be until this system transitions from the front of the storm to the backside of the storm will we see a chance of any type of winter weather and that won’t happen until later tonight and when that does, don’t expect much in terms of accumulations…. I’m not even expecting a dusting…. Maybe in the mountains…. This is the forecasted radar image from 7pm tonight and this was the “heaviest” winter weather at the height of “the storm” lol….

hires_ref_nc_15And this is the forecasted snow totals….. Meh…. Sorry kids! Most of this is going to be only rain, and some of this is melted sleet…. Some meteorologists will get caught up in just this image and not look at the actual physics behind what this means…..snowSo, bundle up and try to stay warm…

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Severe Weather Threat 12/23/15

Ho ho ho ughhhhhh… It seems every year around this time we get the threat for severe weather in the N Georgia area, this year is no different…. Especially since it is an El Nino year…. Here is the threat area for tonight and tomorrow morning, we are in a slight risk area:day1otlk_1300and this is through tomorrow morning.. Don’t let the exact times dictate your thinking, it only means that through tomorrow morning (around 11am) we will be under the risk for some storms that could produce some severe weather. I remember back when I was on the boob tube my management (that’s another story lol…….) would always try to pin me down to predict if there was going to be tornadoes and from what I have learned about this area is that there is ALWAYS a risk for tornadoes when we have a set up like this… I don’t think big monster wedge style grinders are in the future, but I think quick spin ups are possible tomorrow in the morning mainly north of the City….

Here is the latest surface pressure map, this is a big surface low in the ruc00hr_sfc_windmid section of the country that is racing off to the NE fueled but a pretty strong jet stream…. Notice to the north of the low the complete lack of cold air… There is just none to be found here in the US…ruc00hr_sfc_temp.gifAll that means is that this system will be very slow to move through and that will allow the instability (there is not a lot as of right now) to build in over the next 12-24 hours, watch how the CAPE (instability) comes in from the south and peaks tomorrow morning between 4-11amrap_cape_ecentus_13.pngrap_cape_ecentus_19.pngFrom my experience forecasting severe weather here with these types of systems (it’s in my DNA), as long as there is enough jet energy and some shear at the low levels we can get small tornadoes…. Here is the helicity forecast for tonight and tomorrow. Tonight it is strongest as this first batch of storms goes through, then tomorrow as the main line that is in TN moves through the area… rap_helicity_ecentus_6.pngrap_helicity_ecentus_17

So here is the forecasted radar imagery for the same times. There are 2 distinct threats. this evening as the first batch moves through, then tomorrow between around 4 and 11am…..rap_ref_ecentus_6.pngrap_ref_ecentus_13.png

So in a nutshell… Not the biggest threat for a big outbreak, but the threat is there for some storms that could produce some small spin ups with the biggest threat for that tomorrow between 4 and 11 am. I’ll monitor and again thanks for still reading the blog and keeping up with the weather when it gets dicey through me.

Have a very Merry Christmas!!

Mike

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Get Used to This Crappy Gray and Rainy Weather

Good Sunday morning to you my beloved weather geeks… If you are reading this I wanted to say thank you for still being loyal! My real estate business has exploded and it keeps me very busy 🙂

It is yet again another gross day here in the N Georgia are and we are expecting more rain, here are the 3 day totals expected for us:d13_fill

So this “El Nino” that we have going on is a big one…… If you want to read up on exactly what “El Nino” is go to one of my previous blogs I wrote on the subject to catch up. This is a big one, real big….Screen Shot 2015-11-08 at 8.19.08 AM

I can only say that from what I have experienced over the last 25 years with El Nino and all the research that I have done will show that this winter will most likely be 2 things:

#1 Extremely Wet

#2 Milder than average

Again this is from years of experience and plenty of research into the subject. There are historically only 2 places that have a true direct correlation with an El Nino Event and that is Southern California and the SE United States…. With ones as big as this one we in the SE have had very wet winters…..

This latest rain event will last through Monday.. Yay!

Thanks again for hanging with me 🙂 The full winter outlook is soon to come!

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